一般情景预测现金流贴现估值（股权资本自由现金流FCFE）假设第二阶段(2010-2017)年数第二阶段增长率长期增长率无风险利率Rfβ(βlevered)RmKe数值80.50%0.00%5.00%1.2011.00%12.20%分析日期2006-4-18第一阶段FCFE第二阶段FCFE2006E3,574.612011E14,691.232007E5,511.992012E14,7.692008E3,123.472013E14,838.512009E7,057.552014E14,912.70FCFE估值第一阶段第二阶段第三阶段（终值）股权资本的价值股本（万股）每股价值（元）现金流折现值（万元）26,061.7848,008.5432,414.47106,484.796,500.0016.38价值百分比24.47%45.08%30.44%100.00%敏感性测试敏感性测试结果Ke9.50%10.00%10.50%11.00%11.50%12.00%12.50%13.00%13.50%14.00%14.50%长期增长率(g)0.50%22.1720.9019.7618.7317.7916.9416.1615.4514.7914.1813.62-1.00%20.7719.6918.7117.8217.0016.2415.5514.9014.3113.7513.24-0.50%21.1920.0519.0318.0917.2416.4615.7415.0714.4613.13.350.00%21.6520.4619.3818.4017.5016.6915.9415.2514.6214.0313.482010E14,618.142015E14,987.272016E15,062.202016E15,137.512017E15,213.20(g)
1.00%22.7521.3920.1819.0918.1117.2216.4015.6614.9714.3413.761.50%23.4021.9520.6519.5018.4617.5216.6615.15.1814.5213.922.00%24.1422.5721.1819.9418.8417.8516.9516.1415.3914.7114.092.50%24.9823.2721.7720.4419.2718.2217.2716.4115.6314.9214.273.00%25.9624.0722.4421.0119.7418.6217.6216.7115.15.1514.47